![图片[1]-Be short on Bitcoin! CryptoQuant CEO warns that “falling below 59,000 magnesium” by the end of the year, and you will get 0.1 BTC if you guess the price-OzABC](https://www.ozabc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024-11-11-14-59-32.jpg)
The price of Bitcoin has continued to rise strongly in recent days, reaching a peak of nearly $82,000 today, setting a new all-time high again. However, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, is bearish and believes that Bitcoin may fall below $59,000 by the end of this year because the Bitcoin futures market has overheated.
U.S. Republican presidential candidate Trump declared victory last week, and the industry is generally optimistic that Trump will reduce regulatory pressure, promote cryptocurrency-friendly policies, and seek to fulfill his campaign promise of making the United States a global cryptocurrency center. This has stimulated the continued strong rise in the price of Bitcoin in recent days, reaching a peak of nearly 82,000 US dollars today, setting a new record high again, and has risen by nearly 20% in the past seven days.
CryptoQuant CEO warns of impending bear market
However, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, recently published a message predicting that the price of Bitcoin may be slightly less than US$59,000 by the end of the year. He guessed it would be US$58,974, pointing out that overheating of the futures market will be one of the main reasons for Bitcoin’s plunge:
I expect there will be a correction as Bitcoin futures market indicators overheat, but we are entering the price discovery phase and the market is heating up further. If there is a pullback and consolidation, the bull market may continue, however, in my opinion, a strong rally towards the end of the year may set the stage for a bear market in 2025, and I hope I am wrong.
Previously, Ki Young Ju published a prize-based quiz on the 4th, opening up CryptoQuant paid users to predict the Bitcoin price on Binance by the end of 2024, and announced that a reward of 0.1 BTC would be provided for the closest prediction.
Ki Young Ju shared Bitcoin’s cyclical chart last week to explain why he made this prediction. He pointed out that new investors often hold BTC during bear markets and suffer losses, but about two years later, once the “maximum pain” phase subsides, their BTC holdings will change hands, and the current market environment is consistent with this situation.
Ki Young Ju believes that Bitcoin may have a potential increase of 30-40% in this cycle, but he warned that it is unlikely to see Bitcoin soar 368% from $16,000 and experience exponential growth like the previous cycle:
In my opinion, it’s time to consider a gradual sell-off rather than an all-out buy.
Analysts are generally optimistic
However, compared to Ki Young Ju who is bearish, the market is currently generally optimistic about the market outlook.
JP Morgan issued a report last week, optimistic about the performance of Bitcoin after Trump took office, believing that Bitcoin will continue to benefit from the Republican Party’s victory in the US presidential election, and its price will continue to surge for at least eight weeks. It pointed out that Trump has repeatedly expressed support for the digital asset industry and increased tariffs, both of which may ultimately benefit Bitcoin.
Standard Chartered Bank issued a report optimistically predicting that Bitcoin will reach a new high of US$125,000 by the end of this year and exceed US$200,000 by the end of next year. It pointed out that Trump’s multiple cryptocurrency commitments, including firing US SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, including Bitcoin in the national strategic reserve, and building the United States into a Bitcoin superpower, will drive this wave of gains.
Alex Thorn, director of Galaxy Research, also believes that there are currently no signs of overheating in the market. Although the growth of open interest in Bitcoin contracts sometimes triggers market concerns about volatility, current funding rates show that traders are optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects and buyers are willing to pay fees to hold long positions.
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