![图片[1]-Bitwise: Bitcoin’s “Three Conditions” exceed 80,000 Mg by the end of the year, and altcoins become accelerators-OzABC](https://image.blocktempo.com/2024/10/9bb83a6f-eaa2-407f-a4c7-77dd49764023.webp)
In this bull market, after Bitcoin exceeded US$73,000 in March and set a new historical record, the market began to turn from prosperity to decline. Although Bitcoin was expected to challenge the March high in the following months, it was still ruthlessly driven away by the market. After August, market sentiment declined further, and Bitcoin continued to fluctuate widely within the range of US$55,000 to US$65,000.
At a time when the market is tepid, investors are eagerly looking forward to a catalyst that can help break the deadlock in the cryptocurrency market.
Conditions for Bitcoin to rise to $80,000
In this regard, Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer of digital asset management company Bitwise, published an article yesterday saying that Bitcoin needs to meet three conditions in order to reach a new all-time high of $80,000 in 2024, and there is an additional factor that can accelerate the development of Bitcoin prices:
1. US elections: Avoiding a total Democratic victory
Hougan said that the U.S. election has a huge impact on cryptocurrency, but many people use a dichotomy to distinguish the election results: Trump’s election is good, and Harris’s election is bad.
While the Republican Party has a positive stance on cryptocurrencies, the Democratic Party’s situation is more complicated. The party’s stance on cryptocurrencies is clearly divided, from the “anti-crypto army” led by Senator Elizabeth Warren to Rep. Ritchie Torres’ deep support for cryptocurrencies, all showing different attitudes:
The cryptocurrency industry has faced a hostile environment over the past four years as the Warren faction has controlled policy and institutional appointments.
However, Hougan believes that as long as the Democrats do not fully control both houses of Congress (Senate, House of Representatives) and the White House, the Democratic Party will be more neutral on cryptocurrencies. (According to Polymarket data, the current probability of an overall Democratic victory is 20%)
2. Economy: Two interest rate cuts + global stimulus policies
In addition, Hougan believes that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts starting in September are a big plus. Similarly, China’s announcement of a RMB 2 trillion economic stimulus plan at the end of September is also a positive signal.
Hougan said that the market is currently full of expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts and stimulus policies. It is currently expected that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points (2 yards) before the end of the year, and China will also release more fiscal stimulus measures. If the prediction comes true, Bitcoin will usher in a strong rebound, but it may also be a double-sided sword:
If these conditions come true, I think Bitcoin will see a strong rebound in the fourth quarter; if expectations are not met, market disappointment may put pressure on the price.
3. Crypto market: no major negative events
Hougan also pointed out that during this period, the cryptocurrency market must avoid new major unexpected events, such as large-scale hacking attacks, new large-scale lawsuits, and sudden sell-offs of locked tokens:
Cryptocurrency history is full of unexpected events. Over the past few quarters, the release of locked Bitcoin from bankrupt exchange Mt. Gox and government assets has led to increased market price volatility.
If we can avoid this type of event before the end of the year, I expect Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs and beyond.
Extra boost: altcoins
In addition to the above three conditions, Hougan believes that the overall rise in the cryptocurrency market will help drive the price of Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin’s long-term success does not depend on Ethereum, Solana and other altcoins, if Bitcoin is to surge in the short term, crypto market sentiment is a necessary consideration:
Looking back at Bitcoin history, from June 2019 to June 2020, Bitcoin fluctuated between $8,000 and $10,000, but began to rise in the summer of 2020, eventually heading towards $60,000. Much of this volatility is driven by economic stimulus during the pandemic, but some is also driven by market sentiment from the “DeFi Summer”, which has brought investor excitement to the crypto market.
This year, in addition to Bitcoin, this sentiment seems to be picking up in other crypto fields, such as stablecoin market capitalization hitting new highs, community support for high-performance blockchain projects such as Sui, Aptos, and Monad, and innovative projects such as Babylon, which are all exploring how Bitcoin holders can earn income through staking. If the momentum in these areas can be sustained, it will help drive the market.
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