MICA Daily | The US government has reopened! But BTC is still falling, and may even drop below $100,000.

The US government finally reopened yesterday, but because liquidity had not yet materialized, the market did not rise as expected, a typical case of “good news being sold off and bad news coming.”

After a 43-day shutdown, the US government finally reopened yesterday, but the market did not surge as expected. Both US stocks and the cryptocurrency market experienced significant pullbacks, with BTC even falling below $100,000 again in the evening, leaving investors puzzled. As mentioned yesterday, with the government just reopening, liquidity won’t flood the market instantly; there needs to be at least a week for liquidity to return to normal. Therefore, today’s market movement is a classic example of “buying the rumor, selling the news.”

Then there was some negative news in the market, namely that some Federal Reserve governors mentioned in public speeches that a December rate cut was not a certainty. As a result, various forecasting markets lowered their predictions for a December rate cut, leading to a bearish outlook for US stocks and cryptocurrencies, in addition to the market realizing the positive news had been priced in. This is another important reason. Currently, the economic data not yet released due to the government shutdown is also worrying, given that the Trump team has repeatedly stated that the shutdown will impact the economy. There are concerns that poor data could affect the December interest rate decision.

Another widely discussed topic online is this chart shared by the well-known blog Zerohedge. The green line represents the Nasdaq index, and the red line represents the price of Bitcoin. It shows that Bitcoin’s price performance has lagged behind the Nasdaq in the past two months. The main point of discussion is that this trend is somewhat similar to Bitcoin’s situation in November 2021 when it reached a new high of $69,000, then began to underperform the Nasdaq, and then the Nasdaq also began to fall, dragging Bitcoin down to $20,000. Will history repeat itself?

The Bitcoin price has dropped below the psychological $100,000 level for the second time in as many weeks. This latest price crash comes despite the U.S. government reopening, which was expected to serve as a bullish catalyst for the markets.

Bitcoin Price Crashes Below the $100,000 Level

TradingView data shows that BTC has crashed below $100,000 today, hitting a low of $99,300 and dropping below a $2 trillion market cap in the process. This follows the reopening of the U.S. government after U.S. President Donald Trump signed the short-term funding bill.

The government reopening has now turned out to be a sell-the-news event, despite earlier projections that it would boost market sentiment. Notably, the Bitcoin price had surged earlier in the week to as high as $106,000 after the Senate passed the bill in anticipation that the longest government shutdown would end this week.

As CoinGape reported, BTC is also falling amid significant selling pressure, including from institutional investors. The Bitcoin ETFs have recorded 8 days of net outflows in the last 11 days. This includes outflows of $577 million and $558 million recorded on November 4 and 7, respectively.

Furthermore, research firm 10x Research noted that buyers are no longer stepping in, which has kept the Bitcoin price flat despite several potential bullish catalysts. 10x Research also claimed that the crypto market has entered into a mini-bear phase, based on on-chain indicators.

Meanwhile, the uncertainty around a December Fed rate cut has also contributed to the BTC crash and the current bearish sentiment in the market. As CoinGape reported, the odds of a December rate cut have dropped to new lows with a cut no longer certain.

Notably, the two rate cuts this year had sparked a significant rally for the Bitcoin price, with the flagship crypto reaching new all-time highs (ATHs) just before the Fed lowered rates in September and October. However, with another cut now uncertain, market participants may be sitting on the sidelines until there is a clearer picture of the Fed’s potential decision at the December FOMC meeting.

Long positions have suffered the most liquidations amid this crash below $100,000. CoinGlass data shows that $140 million has been liquidated in the last hour, with $138 million being long positions. Meanwhile, in the last 24 hours, there have been $532 million in liquidations, with $411 million being long positions.

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