Renowned trader Pickle Cat stated on her personal channel that while everyone is predicting a bear market, her careful analysis of every macroeconomic signal reveals that everything points to a major bull market. From a technical analysis perspective, 106,000 is a key price level for Bitcoin. She anticipates a significant price movement before Christmas, with a very low probability of a pullback.
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Pickle Cat: From a macro and on-chain data perspective, Bitcoin is not bearish at all.
According to Pickle Cat’s observations , the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice this year, and quantitative tightening will officially end on December 1st, meaning that the pressure of capital outflow from the market will be relieved. At the same time, inflation is cooling, the dollar is weakening, and institutional investors are taking advantage of retail investor panic to enter the market. She points out that the only uncertainty at present is the risk of a government shutdown; once this is eliminated, the market may experience a significant rebound.
She summarized the operations of several key institutions, suggesting that institutions are entering the market:
- JPMorgan Chase: Bitcoin ETF holdings increased by 64% last quarter, and the company predicts the price will reach $170,000 within a year. Pickle Cat quipped, “Isn’t it ironic that this bank, which once called Bitcoin a scam, is now buying it like crazy?”
- BlackRock: Its IBIT ETF holds approximately 780,000 units.BTC▼This accounts for approximately 4% of the total supply.
- US spot Bitcoin ETF: On November 6, it saw a net inflow of approximately $240 million, ending six consecutive days of outflows, and its total holdings reached 6% of the total network supply.
- Hedge funds: Currently, about 55% of funds have crypto exposure, a significant increase from 47% last year.
At the same time, the on-chain data is also very clear:
- Fear & Greed Index: Dropped to 21, which is in the extreme fear range and has historically been the starting point for a rebound.
- Profitability percentage: 71% of Bitcoin holdings are still in a profitable state, indicating that strong institutional investors have not sold off their holdings.
- Stablecoin activity: Stablecoin trading volume on Ethereum reached $2.82 trillion in October, which is like dry gunpowder, ready to explode at any moment.
- Leverage liquidation complete: Even JPMorgan Chase has pointed out that the market’s deleveraging process is basically over.
Pickle Cat believes this signifies a market reset, placing it in its cleanest state in months, with liquidity about to reopen.
Bitcoin hits key price level of $106,000
She then used technical analysis to conclude that $106,000 was a turning point in her life. At that time… BTC▼The price is around $102,000, testing the lower Bollinger Band. The RSI is at 37, and the MACD histogram is shortening, indicating weakening downward momentum. If Bitcoin encounters resistance at $106,000, it may retrace to $94,000–$98,000 (Fib 0.5–0.618 range). If it can hold above $106,000, a pre-Christmas rally is expected, and a significant pullback before the holidays is unlikely.
Pickle Cat points out that this structure is similar to past resonance bottoms: RSI entering the emotional oversold zone, MACD momentum peaking, and Bollinger Bands bottoming out are often precursors to short-term rebounds or local bottoms.
The bull market isn’t over yet! Pickle Cat: A rally is expected before Christmas.
She emphasized that she is not a market indicator worshipper, but rather uses technical indicators as a supplementary tool to judge market rhythm and sentiment fatigue. Markets rarely bottom out due to patterns, but rather due to weakness. Currently, the market is divided: half are calling for a bear market, and the other half are calling for a break in the bull market. Pickle Cat believes both are true, depending on the observation period. A bear market may arrive in mid-2026, but the current wave is not over yet.
Amidst widespread market pessimism, Pickle Cat remains confident: “We survived 2022, and we will survive this one too. We will receive a gift from the market before Christmas.”
Risk Warning
Investing in cryptocurrencies carries a high degree of risk; prices can fluctuate wildly, and you could lose all of your principal. Please carefully assess the risks.
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