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With the US presidential election just around the corner next week, JPMorgan Chase analysts predict that a Trump victory could drive further Bitcoin price increases, primarily driven by retail investors’ “devaluation trades.”
The so-called “debasement trade” refers to investors investing in safe-haven assets in order to diversify their investments and reduce their dependence on fiat currencies when faced with uncertainty in traditional financial markets.
JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, said in a report on Wednesday:
Retail investors are clearly embracing “devaluation trading” more strongly by buying Bitcoin and gold ETFs.
Retail investor momentum is also evident in meme coins and AI tokens, whose market capitalization outperforms other cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.3 billion over the past two days, bringing the total inflow for October to $4.4 billion. Analysts say this is the third-highest monthly net inflow since the Bitcoin ETFs launched in January, primarily driven by retail investors flocking to alternative assets as a safe haven from fiat currency depreciation.
On the other hand, analysts say that institutional investors have largely paused their Bitcoin futures activity in recent weeks, mainly based on changes in the accumulated open interest of Bitcoin futures contracts on the CME Group.
Analysts stated, “Bitcoin futures are overbought, posing some vulnerability for the market going forward.”
Analysts say that gold ETFs have also seen continuous inflows, likely driven by retail investors, while institutional investors have apparently suspended their participation in gold futures.
Overall, a Trump victory would not only encourage retail investors to buy risky assets, but also encourage them to further embrace “devaluation trading.” Therefore, the prices of Bitcoin and gold may have further room to rise in the event of a Trump victory.
JPMorgan analysts said last month that they are optimistic about the cryptocurrency market’s potential in 2025, citing increased devaluation trading and the possibility of Trump returning to the US presidency.
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