Bitcoin’s strong rebound raises the question: what will happen to altcoins? Bankless predicts the price movements of 10 tokens.

October expiration prediction win rate: 70%

Excluding tokens that remain neutral, the token price predictions from 10 bankless analytics teams expired in October. The predictions are as follows:

• Bullish forecast but subsequent decline: Instadapp (INST) down 43%;
• Bearish forecasts but still up: Maple Finance (MPL) rose 43.56%, BNB Chain (BNB) rose 2%;
• The bearish forecasts matched the actual declines: Ondo Finance (ONDO) fell 25.28%, Livepeer (LPT) fell 27%, ETH Name Service (ENS) fell 36.71%, Celestia (TIA) fell 1%, Polkadot (DOT) fell 36.46%, Celestia (TIA) fell 1%, Polkadot (DOT) fell 36.46%, Celestia (TIA) fell 1%, Polkadot (DOT) fell 36.46%, Celestia (TIA) fell 1%, ether.fi (ETHFI) fell 40%, and Worldcoin (WLD) fell 26.07%.

Among the most severely affected by the negative predictions were Instadapp (INST) and Maple Finance (MPL), while ether.fi (ETHFI) showed higher predicted returns. However, the overall success rate of predicting maturing tokens in October remained at 70%.

bullish tokens

dYdX（DYDX）

• Track: DeFi
• Reason: The launch of a US election prediction market may increase DYDX collateralized yields.
• Forecast period: October 16, 2024 to January 16, 2025
• Predicted price at time: $0.96
• Predicted price performance so far: Up 1.28%

Since the Bankless analyst team became bearish on July 23 due to concerns about declining indicators, DYDX has fallen by 26%. However, a bullish catalyst has now emerged: dYdX’s recently launched “TRUMPWIN-USD” trading market will allow traders to go long or short on the possibility of Trump’s re-election as US president with leverage up to 20 times.

While extreme volatility in prediction markets may necessitate forced deleveraging or closing winning positions to prevent market collapse before event settlement, the extreme leverage offered by these contracts undeniably attracts a large number of speculators. Despite the product’s recent launch, monthly data from the highly competitive prediction market Polymarket has already doubled due to surging demand for presidential prediction markets; this trend will almost certainly accelerate as the US election approaches.

DYDX staker rewards are positively correlated with the growing demand for dYdX perpetual contracts. Given that leveraged US presidential prediction markets could be an attractive product, staker yields are likely to increase in the coming weeks, thereby driving up the token price.

Jupiter(JUP)

• Track: DeFi
• Reasons: The outlook for grayscale is positive, and the product has a high degree of market fit.
• Forecast period: October 15, 2024 to January 15, 2025
• Predicted price at time: $0.88
• Predicted price performance so far: down 3.66%

On October 10, Grayscale added JUP to its list of “assets under consideration,” marking the token as a candidate token that may be included in future investment products.

Jupiter is a full-service exchange deployed on Solana. Its core product is a DEX aggregator that automatically routes user trades to pools with the best execution prices. While Jupiter currently does not charge swap fees, and its swap smart contracts do hold assets, the exchange processes hundreds of millions of dollars worth of spot token swaps daily and could easily monetize its order flow at some point in the future.

Despite Jupiter’s fully diluted valuation of $9 billion, 15% higher than Uniswap, this valuation difference may be due to Jupiter’s complementary products, such as highly leveraged perpetual futures (with yields up to 28% on $700 million in liquidity) and a robust token launch platform.

Thala (THL)

• Track: DeFi
• Reason: The Aptos ecosystem header protocol allows us to reap the benefits of ecosystem development.
• Forecast period: October 7, 2024 to January 7, 2025
• Predicted price at time: $0.51
• Predicted price performance so far: Up 6.14%

Although Aptos has gone largely unnoticed due to its continued poor performance throughout 2024, there is optimism that it could be the next beneficiary of the L1 boom, with the ecosystem performing well since mid-September.

Thala (THL) is a comprehensive DeFi application that offers token swapping, liquidity staking, and overcollateralized stablecoins. Ranked by TVL on the Aptos network, it is the largest investable application and the third largest protocol.

Thala is built using Move, a programming language unique to networks like Aptos and Sui. Despite competition on both chains, its market share remains unaffected by established EVM alternatives like Uniswap. Furthermore, Thala can technically be deployed on Move-based networks (such as Movement).

Apartments

• Track: L1
• Reason: Strong fundamentals
• Forecast period: October 4, 2024 to January 4, 2025
• Predicted price at time: $9.13
• Predicted price performance so far: Up 9.97%

Aptos had been underperforming since the beginning of 2023, but the token recovered after hitting a low in August and doubled in the two months prior to this analysis.

Despite the immaturity of Aptos’s application scenarios and its valuation being far higher than Ethereum’s, Aptos’s on-chain fundamentals appear to be showing a positive trend, with the TVL metric reaching a record high as the number of daily active addresses steadily increases.

Aptos theoretically boasts a maximum throughput of 160,000 transactions per second (TPS), making it one of the fastest blockchains in the crypto space. This capability makes it ideal for the bandwidth requirements of high-performance applications in emerging crypto sectors such as DePIN.

Axles (AXL)

• Track: Infrastructure
• Reason: The launch of new cross-chain functionality can leverage the recent boom in L1 networks.
• Forecast period: October 3, 2024 to January 3, 2025
• Predicted price at time: $0.65
• Predicted price performance so far: Up 23.15%

Axelar’s ​​Mobius Development Stack (MDS), launched on October 3, leverages the latest cross-chain interoperability standard for the AXL token to provide a set of open tools and protocols. Its developers claim it will “unlock a whole new space for full-chain design and bring a new dimension to building in Web3.”

With Axelar’s Interchain Amplifier, bridges between new chains can be easily established at the smart contract level without major protocol changes, enabling new interoperability standards to support Flow, Hedera, Solana, Stacks, Stellar, Sui, and XRP Ledger by default.

While the AXL token retains utility under the MDS and can be used as collateral by network validators to process transactions, the structure also allows for re-validation using ETH or BTC collateral to enhance security.

The Bankless analyst team is bullish on AXL’s token performance, believing that the interoperability token is well-positioned to ride the wave of the recent strong performance of L1 tokens, which could accelerate network exploration and bridging activities.

bearish tokens

Uniswap (UNI)

• Track: DeFi
• Reason: Bridging is still required; the swap experience may be terrible.
• Forecast period: October 10, 2024 to January 10, 2025
• Predicted price at time: $8.35
• Predicted price performance so far: down 9.1%

On October 10, Uniswap launched Unichain, a universal rollup built on the OP Stack, with the aim of becoming a liquidity hub for cryptocurrencies and solving the inevitable liquidity fragmentation problem resulting from Ethereum’s rollup-centric roadmap.

The network intends to utilize Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs) protected by UNI validators, who provide fast pre-confirmation and earn network fees for their services, while reducing user transaction wait times by a factor of four from 1 second to 200-250 milliseconds, and realizing the long-awaited use of the UNI token as the network gas consumption token.

However, Unichain exchanges still require time-consuming bridging transactions, although the native interoperability of OP Stack is expected to significantly reduce OP Stack internal chain bridging waiting time and transaction costs.

The Bankless analyst team is bearish on UNI’s price because, despite Unichain’s ambitious plans for an interoperable future and its empowerment of UNI, the need for bridging fundamentally results in a worse swap experience. Since profit-sensitive on-chain traders are unlikely to default to Unichain for worse execution and longer wait times, it’s difficult to imagine what other consequences this experiment will bring besides increased liquidity fragmentation and deteriorating trade execution.

Wormhole（W）

• Track: Infrastructure
• Reason: The new airdrop event lacks attractive incentives, trading volume has decreased, and the market is struggling to absorb the future token unlocks.
• Forecast period: October 2, 2024 to January 2, 2025
• Predicted price at time: $0.36
• Predicted price performance so far: down 17.48%

In August, the Bankless analyst team was bearish on the W token’s performance. Whether Wormhole’s new airdrop will incentivize adoption remains to be seen, and the market may struggle to absorb future token supply.

Although the token price rose throughout the month along with the overall strength of the crypto market, Wormhole trading volume plummeted by 36% ($255 million) from August to September, and the token price saw a significant surge in the days following BlackRock’s blockchain infrastructure partner on BUIDL, Securitize, announcing that it would leverage Wormhole to provide cross-chain functionality for its tokenized asset products.

Meanwhile, the South Korean exchange Upbit also listed the W trading pair on October 2, causing the token price to surge by 30% immediately, before the price trend began to reverse shortly after the trading was launched.

The Bankless analyst team remained bearish on W in October, expressing skepticism about the benefits of the future Wormhole airdrop incentive program, doubting whether the high-profile partnership announcements could reverse the decline in trading volume, and believing that the FOMO triggered by Upbit’s IPO would be short-lived.

OwnLayer（OWN）

• Track: Infrastructure
• Reason: The token is overvalued, and the actual yield of AVS may be poor.
• Forecast period: October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2025
• Predicted price at time: $4
• Predicted price performance so far: down 16%.

At the time of analysis, EIGEN had a market capitalization of $740 million, resulting in a fully diluted valuation of nearly $6.7 billion. While restaking is touted as the secure future of the crypto economy, EigenLayer’s high valuation may struggle to justify in the coming months.

From a fundamental perspective, EigenLayer and its applications will inevitably be valued for their revenue-generating capabilities; while these figures cannot be determined without immediate AVS data, the profit prospects of the entire EigenLayer ecosystem are also questionable.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, leading AVS may only generate a few percentage points of real yield. Crypto investors will need to absorb token inflation to subsidize low returns, an inherently unsustainable balance, especially for new services with little or no immediate integration.

Ether.fi（ETHFI）

• Track: LST
• Reason: The token is overvalued, and the market cannot absorb the subsequent massive influx of funds.
• Forecast period: September 30, 2024 to December 30, 2024
• Predicted price at time: $1.82
• Predicted price performance so far: down 8.24%

In July, the Bankless analyst team issued a bearish outlook on ETHFI, predicting that the outflow of TVL funds would be used to chase other air-spec opportunities and distribute more tokens, which would weaken the growth hopes supporting ether.fi’s high valuation and lead to a decline in the token price.

However, ether.fi did not lose market share and TVL to competitors. Instead, it successfully increased its deposits by creating novel restaking tokens and a continuous airdrop program, although its perpetual token issuance policy had a significant negative impact on the price. The ETHFI team and investor unlocking program begins on March 17th next year, an event that will certainly attract much attention from holders in 2025. While the airdrop incentives have proven successful in retaining deposits, ether.fi’s fully diluted valuation is higher than Lido’s.

The Bankless analyst team remains bearish on the price of ETHFI, believing that given the token’s extremely overvalued nature relative to LDO, the market will struggle to absorb its continued airdrop issuance.

Solana (SUN)

• Track: L1
• Reason: Ecological stagnation may result in performance that is inferior to other L1 strains.
• Forecast period: September 26, 2024 to December 26, 2024
• Predicted price at time: $156.15
• Predicted price performance so far: down 1.84%

On June 21, the Bankless analyst team began to take a bearish view on SOL, predicting that the growing disillusionment with the ecosystem’s Meme coin would lead to its poor performance in the coming months.

In retrospect, the timing of this prediction was ill-timed, as it was released just days before SOL rebounded from the lows of its range, and despite multiple retests, SOL remained at those lows for the following months, during which time the ecosystem was noticeably indifferent.

Since the overall cryptocurrency market peaked in March, Solana’s TVL has remained stagnant. Network fee revenue has been trending downwards, and while its native token has outperformed established meme tokens (i.e., BONK and WIF) in recent months, this is a risk-averse sign that the ecosystem’s golden age may be over. This is a worrying prospect for tokens that rely on superior investor performance.

The Bankless analyst team remains bearish on Solana, believing that the relative attractiveness of other L1s will increase in the foreseeable future, thereby undermining investor confidence in the Solana narrative.

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