Bitcoin fell again along with US stocks, and the crypto market lacked strong momentum.

Bitcoin fell along with the US stock market after slightly higher-than-expected US inflation data and a sharp rise in weekly jobless claims. 10x Research believes Bitcoin has not yet officially broken through its recent downtrend line. While it is too early to give up hope for a fourth-quarter rebound, effective risk management is crucial given the current lack of market momentum.

Weak employment and slightly higher-than-expected CPI

Yesterday, the US released its September Consumer Price Index (CPI), showing an annual increase of 2.4%, higher than the market expectation of 2.3%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy costs, rose 3.3% year-on-year in September, also higher than the market expectation and the previous value of 3.2%. However, the annual inflation rate still recorded its smallest increase in more than three years, reflecting a broader trend of slowing inflation. Another report showed that for the week ending October 5, weekly jobless claims rose to 258,000, mainly due to the impact of Hurricane Helen and the Boeing strike.

Alex Ebkarian, COO of Allegiance Gold, said the Consumer Price Index report did not bring any major surprises, and the employment data showed a weak trend, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently expects an 86.9% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points next month, while the expectation of a 50 basis point cut has completely disappeared.

Bitcoin briefly fell below 59,000, indicating a lack of strong market momentum.

Bitcoin fell along with U.S. stocks after U.S. inflation data came in slightly better than expected and weekly jobless claims surged on Thursday.

BTC briefly dipped below 59K last night, a new low since September 17th. While analysts generally believe the downturn is temporary, they emphasize the close correlation between cryptocurrency performance and the US stock market, anticipating that the cryptocurrency market will follow suit as the stock market recovers.

However, 10x Research believes that Bitcoin has not yet officially broken through its recent downtrend line. Currently, the crypto market lacks sufficient “wind” to keep the ship on course—a wind that comes from market structure—encompassing everything from trading volume and funding rates to stablecoin minting and ETF liquidity. Without strong momentum, cryptocurrencies will remain within a narrow trading range. While it’s too early to give up hope for a fourth-quarter rebound, effective risk management is crucial given the current lack of market momentum.

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