Morgan Stanley strategists say the cryptocurrency market has entered the “autumn phase” of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle and urge investors to cash in during this “harvest season.”
![图片[1]-Bitcoin enters its “harvest season”! Morgan Stanley urges investors to “take profits” and beware of an impending downturn.-OzABC](https://www.ozabc.com/wp-content/uploads/btc-winter-1140x570-1-800x400.webp)
Morgan Stanley strategists say the cryptocurrency market has entered the “autumn phase” of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle and urge investors to cash in during this “harvest season” to prepare for the coming “crypto winter.”
In the latest episode of the “Crypto Goes Mainstream” podcast , Morgan Stanley Wealth Management investment strategist Denny Galindo stated that historical data shows Bitcoin’s price cycles often follow a “three-up-one-down” pattern, and urged investors to take profits before winter arrives. He said:
We are in the autumn harvest season. Autumn is the time to reap, so this is the time you should take profits. But the focus of market debate is: how long will this autumn last? And when will the next winter arrive?
Denny Galindo’s analogy shows that Wall Street is beginning to view Bitcoin’s market rhythm through a more mature cyclical investment framework. Shortly before the “harvest theory” was put forward, Bitcoin fell below $99,000 on November 5.
According to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, this caused Bitcoin to fall below a key long-term technical indicator – the 365-day moving average, which is widely seen as a strong bearish signal.
Bitrue analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima pointed out that this decline “officially marks the arrival of a technical bear market.”
On the other hand, cryptocurrency market maker Windemute also mentioned that the three main drivers supporting market liquidity—stablecoins, cryptocurrency ETFs, and cryptocurrency reserve companies—have all recently stalled, with the momentum of capital inflows clearly cooling down.
Despite increased short-term market volatility, institutional investors remain optimistic.
Michael Cyprys, head of U.S. brokerage and asset management at Morgan Stanley Research, pointed out on the program that more and more institutions are beginning to view Bitcoin as an asset that can be included in diversified investment portfolios. He said:
Some institutional investors view Bitcoin as digital gold or a safe haven against inflation and currency devaluation.
He also pointed out that Bitcoin spot ETFs have significantly lowered the investment threshold. Michael Cyprys explained that large investors’ portfolio allocation typically progresses slowly due to factors such as internal processes, risk committees, and long-term investment mandates. However, with the maturation of regulatory frameworks and ETF infrastructure, the entry barrier has been greatly reduced, and adoption continues to increase.
Michael Cyprys stated that Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have brought billions of dollars in assets under management to the sector.
According to SoSoValue data, the total net assets of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $137 billion, while Ethereum spot ETFs have reached $22.4 billion.
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